FC Mariupol vs Zorya Luhansk — Premier League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 41+ matches
FC Mariupol28%
Zorya Luhansk48%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Zorya Luhansk creates 36% more chances
Season form · 41 home / 97 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC Mariupol ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC Mariupol at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.71 · 41 matches
Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.25 · 97 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC Mariupol attack 1.20 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23
Zorya Luhansk attack 1.62 + FC Mariupol defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Zorya Luhansk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
FC Mariupol substitutes
Shakhtar Donetsk
LNZ Cherkasy
Polessya
Dynamo Kyiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Kolos Kovalivka
Kryvbas KRZorya Luhansk
Karpaty
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Veres Rivne
Kudrivka
Obolon'-Brovar
Ruh Lviv
Oleksandria
SK Poltava
Livyi Bereh
Ahrobiznes VolochyskIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
FC Mariupol host Zorya Luhansk on Sunday, 22 August 2021 at 14:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2026/2027 season.
Premier League: FC Mariupol 3–4 Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk beat FC Mariupol 4-3 in Premier League on August 22, 2021.
Goals: E. Nazaryna (22'), S. Zahedi (28', 60'), O. Gladkyi (32'), A. Kulakov (47'), D. Svityukha (79'), A. Mykytyshyn (89').
FC Mariupol controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 13.
The match was played at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka in Mariupol'.