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Zorya Luhansk vs AEK Athens FC — UEFA Europa League 2026

Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
V. Kochergin 81'
M. Livaja 81', 54'
P. Mandalos 34'
M. Tankovic 6'
11/5/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group G - 3Slavutych-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zorya Luhansk29%
×Draw26%
AEK Athens FC46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorya Luhansk
1.13
AEK Athens FC
1.50

AEK Athens FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.25
AEK Athens FC
1.50

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.50
AEK Athens FC
1.00

finishing

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par
AEK Athens FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

AEK Athens FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw
54%
Zorya Luhansk or AEK Athens FC
74%
Draw or AEK Athens FC
71%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
11%
AEK Athens FC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
68%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
31%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
11%
AEK Athens FC 1+ goals
78%
AEK Athens FC 2+ goals
44%
AEK Athens FC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
38%
AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

AEK Athens FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.25 + AEK Athens FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

AEK Athens FC attack 1.50 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more
29%
level
26%
AEK Athens FC scores more
46%

AEK Athens FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AEK Athens FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. LivajaAEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC · F
9.2

Match Events

6'
M. Tankovic
30'
Petros Mantalos
34'
P. Mandalos↳ M. Tankovic
46'
A. Sayyadmanesh← A. Gromov
46'
E. Nazaryna← M. Lunev
54'
M. Livaja↳ P. Mandalos
59'
D. Favorov← D. Khomchenovskyi
59'
O. Gladkyi← V. Kabaev
66'
Vitali Vernydub
70'
A. Šabanadžović← Y. Shakhov
75'
K. Ansarifard← M. Tankovic
77'
Karim Ansarifard
81'
V. Kochergin↳ E. Nazaryna
81'
M. Livaja
85'
G. Botos← P. Mandalos
85'
K. Galanopoulos← N. Krstičić
87'
Emanuel Insua

Possession

65%Zorya

Shots

16Zorya

Pass accuracy

56%Zorya

Statistics

ZoryaAEK
Overview
65%Possession35%
16Total Shots9
5Corners1
12Fouls17
Shots
16Total Shots9
4On Target7
6Off Target2
6Blocked0
9Inside Box9
7Outside Box0
Passing
65%Possession35%
559Total Passes295
466Accurate Passes191
83%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls17
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

UEFA Europa League: Zorya Luhansk 1–4 AEK Athens FC

AEK Athens FC beat Zorya Luhansk 4-1 in UEFA Europa League on November 5, 2020.

Goals: M. Tankovic (6'), P. Mandalos (34'), M. Livaja (54', 81'), V. Kochergin (81').

Zorya Luhansk controlled possession (65%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Slavutych-Arena in Zaporizhzhia.