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Zorkiy vs Znamya Truda — Second League - Group 2 2020

Zorkiy
Zorkiy
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
8/6/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Stadion Zorkij

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zorkiy48%
×Draw25%
Znamya Truda27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorkiy
1.56
Znamya Truda
1.11

Zorkiy creates 41% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 68 away

creates per match

Zorkiy
1.52
Znamya Truda
1.07

allows per match

Zorkiy
1.16
Znamya Truda
1.59

finishing

Zorkiy+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorkiy ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zorkiy or draw
73%
Zorkiy or Znamya Truda
75%
Draw or Znamya Truda
52%

Winning margin

Zorkiy wins by 2+
24%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zorkiy 1+ goals
79%
Zorkiy 2+ goals
46%
Zorkiy 3+ goals
21%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
67%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
30%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zorkiy (draw refunded)
64%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorkiy at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorkiy attack 1.52 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Zorkiy defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zorkiy scores more
48%
level
25%
Znamya Truda scores more
27%

Zorkiy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zorkiy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zorkiy vs Znamya Truda

Znamya Truda beat Zorkiy 2-0 in Second League - Group 2 on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Zorkij in Krasnogorsk.