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Zorkiy vs Yenisey II — Second League - Group 2 2020

Zorkiy
Zorkiy
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Yenisey II
Yenisey II
9/4/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Stadion Zorkij

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zorkiy58%
×Draw22%
Yenisey II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorkiy
1.91
Yenisey II
1.04

Zorkiy creates 84% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 76 away

creates per match

Zorkiy
1.52
Yenisey II
0.92

allows per match

Zorkiy
1.16
Yenisey II
2.30

finishing

Zorkiy+0.00on par
Yenisey II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorkiy ↓

Yenisey II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zorkiy or draw
80%
Zorkiy or Yenisey II
78%
Draw or Yenisey II
42%

Winning margin

Zorkiy wins by 2+
34%
Yenisey II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zorkiy 1+ goals
85%
Zorkiy 2+ goals
57%
Zorkiy 3+ goals
30%
Yenisey II 1+ goals
65%
Yenisey II 2+ goals
28%
Yenisey II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zorkiy (draw refunded)
74%
Yenisey II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorkiy at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Yenisey II away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.30 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorkiy attack 1.52 + Yenisey II defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.91

Yenisey II attack 0.92 + Zorkiy defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zorkiy scores more
58%
level
22%
Yenisey II scores more
20%

Zorkiy at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zorkiy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zorkiy vs Yenisey II

Yenisey II beat Zorkiy 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Zorkij in Krasnogorsk.