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Zorkiy vs Yadro St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Zorkiy
Zorkiy
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Yadro St. Petersburg
Yadro St. Petersburg
10/24/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Stadion Zorkij

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zorkiy48%
×Draw25%
Yadro St. Petersburg27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorkiy
1.63
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.15

Zorkiy creates 42% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

creates per match

Zorkiy
1.52
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.13

allows per match

Zorkiy
1.16
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.73

finishing

Zorkiy+0.00on par
Yadro St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorkiy ↓

Yadro St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zorkiy or draw
73%
Zorkiy or Yadro St. Petersburg
75%
Draw or Yadro St. Petersburg
52%

Winning margin

Zorkiy wins by 2+
25%
Yadro St. Petersburg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zorkiy 1+ goals
80%
Zorkiy 2+ goals
48%
Zorkiy 3+ goals
22%
Yadro St. Petersburg 1+ goals
68%
Yadro St. Petersburg 2+ goals
32%
Yadro St. Petersburg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zorkiy (draw refunded)
64%
Yadro St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorkiy at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Yadro St. Petersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorkiy attack 1.52 + Yadro St. Petersburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.63

Yadro St. Petersburg attack 1.13 + Zorkiy defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zorkiy scores more
48%
level
25%
Yadro St. Petersburg scores more
27%

Zorkiy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zorkiy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zorkiy vs Yadro St. Petersburg

Zorkiy beat Yadro St. Petersburg 4-2 in Second League - Group 2 on October 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Zorkij in Krasnogorsk.