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Zorkiy vs Torpedo Vladimir — Second League - Group 2 2020

Zorkiy
Zorkiy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Torpedo Vladimir
Torpedo Vladimir
4/15/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 3Stadion Zorkij

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zorkiy45%
×Draw26%
Torpedo Vladimir29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorkiy
1.48
Torpedo Vladimir
1.12

Zorkiy creates 32% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 87 away

creates per match

Zorkiy
1.52
Torpedo Vladimir
1.08

allows per match

Zorkiy
1.16
Torpedo Vladimir
1.44

finishing

Zorkiy+0.00on par
Torpedo Vladimir+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorkiy ↓

Torpedo Vladimir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zorkiy or draw
71%
Zorkiy or Torpedo Vladimir
74%
Draw or Torpedo Vladimir
55%

Winning margin

Zorkiy wins by 2+
22%
Torpedo Vladimir wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zorkiy 1+ goals
77%
Zorkiy 2+ goals
43%
Zorkiy 3+ goals
19%
Torpedo Vladimir 1+ goals
67%
Torpedo Vladimir 2+ goals
31%
Torpedo Vladimir 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zorkiy (draw refunded)
61%
Torpedo Vladimir (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorkiy at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Torpedo Vladimir away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorkiy attack 1.52 + Torpedo Vladimir defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

Torpedo Vladimir attack 1.08 + Zorkiy defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zorkiy scores more
45%
level
26%
Torpedo Vladimir scores more
29%

Zorkiy at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zorkiy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zorkiy vs Torpedo Vladimir

Zorkiy and Torpedo Vladimir drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 2 on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Zorkij in Krasnogorsk.