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Zorkiy vs Spartak Kostroma — Second League - Group 2 2020

Zorkiy
Zorkiy
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
5/21/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 9Stadion Zorkij

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zorkiy35%
×Draw26%
Spartak Kostroma39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorkiy
1.32
Spartak Kostroma
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

creates per match

Zorkiy
1.52
Spartak Kostroma
1.63

allows per match

Zorkiy
1.16
Spartak Kostroma
1.13

finishing

Zorkiy+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorkiy ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zorkiy or draw
61%
Zorkiy or Spartak Kostroma
74%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
65%

Winning margin

Zorkiy wins by 2+
16%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Zorkiy 1+ goals
73%
Zorkiy 2+ goals
38%
Zorkiy 3+ goals
15%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
75%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
41%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zorkiy (draw refunded)
48%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorkiy at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorkiy attack 1.52 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.32

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.63 + Zorkiy defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zorkiy scores more
35%
level
26%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
39%

Spartak Kostroma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zorkiy vs Spartak Kostroma

Spartak Kostroma beat Zorkiy 3-1 in Second League - Group 2 on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Zorkij in Krasnogorsk.