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Zorkiy vs Murom — Second League - Group 2 2020

Zorkiy
Zorkiy
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Murom
Murom
4/29/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 5Stadion Zorkij

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zorkiy41%
×Draw27%
Murom32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorkiy
1.34
Murom
1.15

Zorkiy creates 17% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 55 away

creates per match

Zorkiy
1.52
Murom
1.13

allows per match

Zorkiy
1.16
Murom
1.16

finishing

Zorkiy+0.00on par
Murom+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorkiy ↓

Murom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zorkiy or draw
68%
Zorkiy or Murom
73%
Draw or Murom
59%

Winning margin

Zorkiy wins by 2+
19%
Murom wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zorkiy 1+ goals
74%
Zorkiy 2+ goals
39%
Zorkiy 3+ goals
15%
Murom 1+ goals
68%
Murom 2+ goals
32%
Murom 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zorkiy (draw refunded)
56%
Murom (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorkiy at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Murom away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorkiy attack 1.52 + Murom defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.34

Murom attack 1.13 + Zorkiy defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zorkiy scores more
41%
level
27%
Murom scores more
32%

Zorkiy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zorkiy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zorkiy vs Murom

Zorkiy beat Murom 4-0 in Second League - Group 2 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Zorkij in Krasnogorsk.