Zorkiy 4–0 Elektron VN: Result & Stats

Zorkiy

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Elektron VN

9/26/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Stadion Zorkij

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zorkiy70%

×Draw18%

Elektron VN12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZorkiyExpected goals in this matchElektron VN

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

0.81

Zorkiy

2.28

Elektron VN

0.81

Zorkiy creates 181% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

1.52

creates per match

0.46

1.16

allows per match

3.04

creates per match

Zorkiy

1.52

Elektron VN

0.46

allows per match

Zorkiy

1.16

Elektron VN

3.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zorkiy+0.00on par

Elektron VN+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorkiy ↓

Elektron VN →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Zorkiy or draw

88%

Zorkiy or Elektron VN

82%

Draw or Elektron VN

30%

Winning margin

Zorkiy wins by 2+

47%

Elektron VN wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Zorkiy 1+ goals

90%

Zorkiy 2+ goals

66%

Zorkiy 3+ goals

39%

Elektron VN 1+ goals

56%

Elektron VN 2+ goals

19%

Elektron VN 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Zorkiy (draw refunded)

86%

Elektron VN (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorkiy at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Elektron VN away — creates 0.46, concedes 3.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorkiy attack 1.52 + Elektron VN defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.28

Elektron VN attack 0.46 + Zorkiy defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Zorkiy scores more

70%

level

18%

Elektron VN scores more

12%

Zorkiy at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Zorkiy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff