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Zoo Kericho vs Sony Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
CANC
00:00
Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
11/20/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 10Kericho Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zoo Kericho36%
×Draw30%
Sony Sugar34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.04
Sony Sugar
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 34 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.08
Sony Sugar
0.91

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.08
Sony Sugar
1.00

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
Sony Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Sony Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
66%
Zoo Kericho or Sony Sugar
70%
Draw or Sony Sugar
64%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
14%
Sony Sugar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
65%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
28%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
9%
Sony Sugar 1+ goals
63%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
26%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
51%
Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

Sony Sugar away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.08 + Sony Sugar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Sony Sugar attack 0.91 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
36%
level
30%
Sony Sugar scores more
34%

Zoo Kericho at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zoo Kericho vs Sony Sugar — Match Preview

Zoo Kericho face Sony Sugar on November 20, 2019 in this FKF Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zoo Kericho host Sony Sugar at Kericho Green Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.