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Zoo Kericho vs Shabana — Super League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
CANC
00:00
Shabana
Shabana
7/17/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 37Kericho Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zoo Kericho35%
×Draw29%
Shabana36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.09
Shabana
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 34 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.31
Shabana
1.15

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.06
Shabana
0.88

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
Shabana+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Shabana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
64%
Zoo Kericho or Shabana
71%
Draw or Shabana
65%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
14%
Shabana wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
66%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
30%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
10%
Shabana 1+ goals
67%
Shabana 2+ goals
30%
Shabana 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
50%
Shabana (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Shabana away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.31 + Shabana defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.09

Shabana attack 1.15 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
35%
level
29%
Shabana scores more
36%

Shabana at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Shabana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zoo Kericho vs Shabana — Match Preview

Zoo Kericho face Shabana on July 17, 2022 in this Super League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zoo Kericho host Shabana at Kericho Green Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.