Zoo Kericho 3–0 Mwatate United: Result & Stats

Zoo Kericho

FT

3 – 0

Mwatate United

4/23/2022

Super League · Round 21Kericho Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zoo Kericho51%

×Draw26%

Mwatate United23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zoo KerichoExpected goals in this matchMwatate United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.92

Zoo Kericho

1.50

Mwatate United

0.92

Zoo Kericho creates 63% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 53 away

1.31

creates per match

0.77

1.06

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Zoo Kericho

1.31

Mwatate United

0.77

allows per match

Zoo Kericho

1.06

Mwatate United

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Mwatate United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Mwatate United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw

77%

Zoo Kericho or Mwatate United

74%

Draw or Mwatate United

49%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+

26%

Mwatate United wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals

78%

Zoo Kericho 2+ goals

44%

Zoo Kericho 3+ goals

19%

Mwatate United 1+ goals

60%

Mwatate United 2+ goals

23%

Mwatate United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)

69%

Mwatate United (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Mwatate United away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.31 + Mwatate United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mwatate United attack 0.77 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more

51%

level

26%

Mwatate United scores more

23%

Zoo Kericho at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff