Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zoo Kericho vs Mathare United — FKF Premier League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
FT
2 – 2
Mathare United
Mathare United
1/29/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 15Kericho Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Zoo Kericho42%
×Draw28%
Mathare United30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.29
Mathare United
1.03

Zoo Kericho creates 25% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 128 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.06
Mathare United
0.98

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.08
Mathare United
1.51

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
Mathare United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Mathare United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
70%
Zoo Kericho or Mathare United
72%
Draw or Mathare United
58%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
19%
Mathare United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
72%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
37%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
14%
Mathare United 1+ goals
64%
Mathare United 2+ goals
28%
Mathare United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
59%
Mathare United (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Mathare United away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.51 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.06 + Mathare United defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mathare United attack 0.98 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
42%
level
28%
Mathare United scores more
30%

Zoo Kericho at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zoo Kericho vs Mathare United

Zoo Kericho and Mathare United drew 2-2 in FKF Premier League on January 29, 2020.

The match was played at Kericho Green Stadium in Kericho.