Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zoo Kericho vs Kibera Black Stars — Super League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
FT
2 – 1
Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
3/19/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Kericho Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zoo Kericho44%
×Draw28%
Kibera Black Stars28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.31
Kibera Black Stars
1.00

Zoo Kericho creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 110 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.31
Kibera Black Stars
0.95

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.06
Kibera Black Stars
1.31

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Kibera Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
72%
Zoo Kericho or Kibera Black Stars
72%
Draw or Kibera Black Stars
56%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
20%
Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
73%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
38%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
14%
Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
63%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
26%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
61%
Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.31 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.95 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
44%
level
28%
Kibera Black Stars scores more
28%

Zoo Kericho at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Zoo Kericho 2–1 Kibera Black Stars

Zoo Kericho beat Kibera Black Stars 2-1 in Super League on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Kericho Green Stadium in Kericho.