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Zoo Kericho vs AFC Leopards — FKF Premier League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
FT
0 – 0
AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
6/27/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 18Kericho Green Stadium (Kericho)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Zoo Kericho34%
×Draw29%
AFC Leopards37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.06
AFC Leopards
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 144 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.10
AFC Leopards
1.18

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.06
AFC Leopards
1.01

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

AFC Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
63%
Zoo Kericho or AFC Leopards
71%
Draw or AFC Leopards
66%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
13%
AFC Leopards wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
65%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
29%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
9%
AFC Leopards 1+ goals
67%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
31%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
48%
AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

AFC Leopards away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.01 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.10 + AFC Leopards defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

AFC Leopards attack 1.18 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
34%
level
29%
AFC Leopards scores more
37%

AFC Leopards at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zoo Kericho vs AFC Leopards

Zoo Kericho and AFC Leopards drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on June 27, 2018.

The match was played at Kericho Green Stadium (Kericho).