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AFC Leopards vs Zoo Kericho — FKF Premier League 2018

AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
CANC
12:00
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
5/1/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 15Nyayo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

AFC Leopards53%
×Draw26%
Zoo Kericho22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Leopards
1.54
Zoo Kericho
0.88

AFC Leopards creates 75% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 52 away

creates per match

AFC Leopards
1.15
Zoo Kericho
0.90

allows per match

AFC Leopards
0.86
Zoo Kericho
1.94

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw
78%
AFC Leopards or Zoo Kericho
74%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
47%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+
27%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals
79%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
45%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
20%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
59%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
22%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
71%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 145 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 1.15 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.54

Zoo Kericho attack 0.90 + AFC Leopards defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AFC Leopards scores more
53%
level
26%
Zoo Kericho scores more
22%

AFC Leopards at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Leopards face Zoo Kericho (FKF Premier League)

FKF Premier League returns with AFC Leopards hosting Zoo Kericho. Match starts May 1, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

AFC Leopards host Zoo Kericho at Nyayo National Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.