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Zonguldak Kömürspor vs Darıca Gençlerbirliği — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Zonguldak Kömürspor
Zonguldak Kömürspor
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
11/5/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundDevrek İlçe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zonguldak Kömürspor35%
×Draw22%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zonguldak Kömürspor
1.65
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
1.83

Darıca Gençlerbirliği creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Zonguldak Kömürspor
1.67
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
1.50

allows per match

Zonguldak Kömürspor
2.17
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
1.63

finishing

Zonguldak Kömürspor+0.00on par
Darıca Gençlerbirliği+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zonguldak Kömürspor ↓

Darıca Gençlerbirliği →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Zonguldak Kömürspor or draw
58%
Zonguldak Kömürspor or Darıca Gençlerbirliği
78%
Draw or Darıca Gençlerbirliği
65%

Winning margin

Zonguldak Kömürspor wins by 2+
17%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Zonguldak Kömürspor 1+ goals
81%
Zonguldak Kömürspor 2+ goals
49%
Zonguldak Kömürspor 3+ goals
23%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği 1+ goals
84%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği 2+ goals
54%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Zonguldak Kömürspor (draw refunded)
45%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zonguldak Kömürspor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Darıca Gençlerbirliği away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zonguldak Kömürspor attack 1.67 + Darıca Gençlerbirliği defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

Darıca Gençlerbirliği attack 1.50 + Zonguldak Kömürspor defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zonguldak Kömürspor scores more
35%
level
22%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği scores more
42%

Darıca Gençlerbirliği at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Darıca Gençlerbirliği will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zonguldak Kömürspor vs Darıca Gençlerbirliği

Darıca Gençlerbirliği beat Zonguldak Kömürspor 3-2 in Türkiye Kupası on November 5, 2020.

The match was played at Devrek İlçe Stadı in Devrek.