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Zonguldak Kömürspor vs Bodrum FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Zonguldak Kömürspor
Zonguldak Kömürspor
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 0
Bodrum FK
Bodrum FK
10/30/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zonguldak Kömürspor31%
×Draw21%
Bodrum FK48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zonguldak Kömürspor
1.64
Bodrum FK
2.08

Bodrum FK creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

creates per match

Zonguldak Kömürspor
1.67
Bodrum FK
2.00

allows per match

Zonguldak Kömürspor
2.17
Bodrum FK
1.60

finishing

Zonguldak Kömürspor+0.00on par
Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zonguldak Kömürspor ↓

Bodrum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Zonguldak Kömürspor or draw
52%
Zonguldak Kömürspor or Bodrum FK
79%
Draw or Bodrum FK
69%

Winning margin

Zonguldak Kömürspor wins by 2+
15%
Bodrum FK wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Zonguldak Kömürspor 1+ goals
81%
Zonguldak Kömürspor 2+ goals
49%
Zonguldak Kömürspor 3+ goals
23%
Bodrum FK 1+ goals
87%
Bodrum FK 2+ goals
61%
Bodrum FK 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Zonguldak Kömürspor (draw refunded)
39%
Bodrum FK (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zonguldak Kömürspor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Bodrum FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zonguldak Kömürspor attack 1.67 + Bodrum FK defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Bodrum FK attack 2.00 + Zonguldak Kömürspor defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zonguldak Kömürspor scores more
31%
level
21%
Bodrum FK scores more
48%

Bodrum FK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Zonguldak Kömürspor 0–5 Bodrum FK

Bodrum FK beat Zonguldak Kömürspor 5-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 30, 2025.