Zonguldak Kömürspor 4–1 Bayrampaşaspor

Zonguldak Kömürspor

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bayrampaşaspor

9/26/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundKaraelmas Kemal Köksal Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zonguldak Kömürspor52%

×Draw22%

Bayrampaşaspor26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zonguldak KömürsporExpected goals in this matchBayrampaşaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.33

Zonguldak Kömürspor

1.96

Bayrampaşaspor

1.33

Zonguldak Kömürspor creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

0.50

2.17

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Zonguldak Kömürspor

1.67

Bayrampaşaspor

0.50

allows per match

Zonguldak Kömürspor

2.17

Bayrampaşaspor

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zonguldak Kömürspor+0.00on par

Bayrampaşaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zonguldak Kömürspor ↓

Bayrampaşaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Zonguldak Kömürspor or draw

74%

Zonguldak Kömürspor or Bayrampaşaspor

78%

Draw or Bayrampaşaspor

48%

Winning margin

Zonguldak Kömürspor wins by 2+

30%

Bayrampaşaspor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Zonguldak Kömürspor 1+ goals

86%

Zonguldak Kömürspor 2+ goals

58%

Zonguldak Kömürspor 3+ goals

31%

Bayrampaşaspor 1+ goals

74%

Bayrampaşaspor 2+ goals

38%

Bayrampaşaspor 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Zonguldak Kömürspor (draw refunded)

67%

Bayrampaşaspor (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zonguldak Kömürspor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Bayrampaşaspor away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zonguldak Kömürspor attack 1.67 + Bayrampaşaspor defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Bayrampaşaspor attack 0.50 + Zonguldak Kömürspor defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zonguldak Kömürspor scores more

52%

level

22%

Bayrampaşaspor scores more

26%

Zonguldak Kömürspor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zonguldak Kömürspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff