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Zoman vs Stade d'Abidjan — Ligue 1 2019

Zoman
Zoman
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Stade d'Abidjan
Stade d'Abidjan
5/11/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 29Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zoman27%
×Draw29%
Stade d'Abidjan44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoman
0.93
Stade d'Abidjan
1.26

Stade d'Abidjan creates 35% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 59 away

creates per match

Zoman
0.98
Stade d'Abidjan
1.39

allows per match

Zoman
1.13
Stade d'Abidjan
0.88

finishing

Zoman+0.00on par
Stade d'Abidjan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoman ↓

Stade d'Abidjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zoman or draw
56%
Zoman or Stade d'Abidjan
71%
Draw or Stade d'Abidjan
73%

Winning margin

Zoman wins by 2+
10%
Stade d'Abidjan wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Zoman 1+ goals
61%
Zoman 2+ goals
24%
Zoman 3+ goals
7%
Stade d'Abidjan 1+ goals
72%
Stade d'Abidjan 2+ goals
36%
Stade d'Abidjan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zoman (draw refunded)
38%
Stade d'Abidjan (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoman at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Stade d'Abidjan away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.88 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoman attack 0.98 + Stade d'Abidjan defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Stade d'Abidjan attack 1.39 + Zoman defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zoman scores more
27%
level
29%
Stade d'Abidjan scores more
44%

Stade d'Abidjan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stade d'Abidjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zoman vs Stade d'Abidjan

Stade d'Abidjan beat Zoman 3-2 in Ligue 1 on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Robert Champroux in Abidjan.