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Zoman vs SOL — Ligue 1 2019

Zoman
Zoman
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SOL
SOL
2/19/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zoman35%
×Draw29%
SOL35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoman
1.10
SOL
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 90 away

creates per match

Zoman
0.98
SOL
1.08

allows per match

Zoman
1.13
SOL
1.22

finishing

Zoman+0.00on par
SOL+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoman ↓

SOL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zoman or draw
65%
Zoman or SOL
71%
Draw or SOL
65%

Winning margin

Zoman wins by 2+
14%
SOL wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zoman 1+ goals
67%
Zoman 2+ goals
30%
Zoman 3+ goals
10%
SOL 1+ goals
67%
SOL 2+ goals
30%
SOL 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zoman (draw refunded)
50%
SOL (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoman at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

SOL away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoman attack 0.98 + SOL defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

SOL attack 1.08 + Zoman defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Zoman scores more
35%
level
29%
SOL scores more
35%

Zoman at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Zoman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zoman 1 – 1 SOL

Zoman and SOL drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on February 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Robert Champroux in Abidjan.