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Zoman vs Denguélé — Ligue 1 2019

Zoman
Zoman
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Denguélé
Denguélé
4/18/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 27Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zoman43%
×Draw29%
Denguélé28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoman
1.23
Denguélé
0.95

Zoman creates 29% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Zoman
0.98
Denguélé
0.78

allows per match

Zoman
1.13
Denguélé
1.47

finishing

Zoman+0.00on par
Denguélé+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoman ↓

Denguélé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zoman or draw
72%
Zoman or Denguélé
71%
Draw or Denguélé
57%

Winning margin

Zoman wins by 2+
19%
Denguélé wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zoman 1+ goals
71%
Zoman 2+ goals
35%
Zoman 3+ goals
13%
Denguélé 1+ goals
61%
Denguélé 2+ goals
25%
Denguélé 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zoman (draw refunded)
60%
Denguélé (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoman at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Denguélé away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoman attack 0.98 + Denguélé defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Denguélé attack 0.78 + Zoman defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zoman scores more
43%
level
29%
Denguélé scores more
28%

Zoman at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zoman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zoman vs Denguélé

Zoman and Denguélé drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Robert Champroux in Abidjan.