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Zoman vs ASEC Mimosas — Ligue 1 2019

Zoman
Zoman
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
ASEC Mimosas
ASEC Mimosas
5/18/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 28Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zoman24%
×Draw29%
ASEC Mimosas47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoman
0.82
ASEC Mimosas
1.27

ASEC Mimosas creates 55% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 89 away

creates per match

Zoman
0.98
ASEC Mimosas
1.42

allows per match

Zoman
1.13
ASEC Mimosas
0.66

finishing

Zoman+0.00on par
ASEC Mimosas+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoman ↓

ASEC Mimosas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zoman or draw
53%
Zoman or ASEC Mimosas
71%
Draw or ASEC Mimosas
76%

Winning margin

Zoman wins by 2+
8%
ASEC Mimosas wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Zoman 1+ goals
56%
Zoman 2+ goals
20%
Zoman 3+ goals
5%
ASEC Mimosas 1+ goals
72%
ASEC Mimosas 2+ goals
36%
ASEC Mimosas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zoman (draw refunded)
34%
ASEC Mimosas (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoman at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

ASEC Mimosas away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoman attack 0.98 + ASEC Mimosas defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.82

ASEC Mimosas attack 1.42 + Zoman defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zoman scores more
24%
level
29%
ASEC Mimosas scores more
47%

ASEC Mimosas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ASEC Mimosas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Zoman 0–2 ASEC Mimosas

ASEC Mimosas beat Zoman 2-0 in Ligue 1 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Robert Champroux in Abidjan.