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ZOB Ahan vs Sepidrood Rasht — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
4/4/2019Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 24Folād Shahr Stadium (Folād Shahr (Fooladshahr))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

ZOB Ahan46%
×Draw30%
Sepidrood Rasht24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ZOB Ahan
1.21
Sepidrood Rasht
0.80

ZOB Ahan creates 51% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 15 away

creates per match

ZOB Ahan
0.89
Sepidrood Rasht
0.67

allows per match

ZOB Ahan
0.94
Sepidrood Rasht
1.53

finishing

ZOB Ahan+0.00on par
Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ZOB Ahan ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

ZOB Ahan or draw
76%
ZOB Ahan or Sepidrood Rasht
70%
Draw or Sepidrood Rasht
54%

Winning margin

ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
20%
Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
70%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
34%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
12%
Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
55%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
19%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
65%
Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ZOB Ahan at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 115 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ZOB Ahan attack 0.89 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.67 + ZOB Ahan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ZOB Ahan scores more
46%
level
30%
Sepidrood Rasht scores more
24%

ZOB Ahan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ZOB Ahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: ZOB Ahan 0–0 Sepidrood Rasht

ZOB Ahan and Sepidrood Rasht drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on April 4, 2019.

The match was played at Folād Shahr Stadium (Folād Shahr (Fooladshahr)).