ZOB Ahan 0–1 Naft Masjed Soleyman: Result & Stats

ZOB Ahan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Naft Masjed Soleyman

4/5/2022

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 24Folād Shahr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

ZOB Ahan44%

×Draw32%

Naft Masjed Soleyman23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZOB AhanExpected goals in this matchNaft Masjed Soleyman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.69

ZOB Ahan

1.07

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.69

ZOB Ahan creates 55% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 74 away

0.89

creates per match

0.45

0.94

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

ZOB Ahan

0.89

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.45

allows per match

ZOB Ahan

0.94

Naft Masjed Soleyman

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ZOB Ahan ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

ZOB Ahan or draw

77%

ZOB Ahan or Naft Masjed Soleyman

68%

Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman

56%

Winning margin

ZOB Ahan wins by 2+

18%

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

ZOB Ahan 1+ goals

66%

ZOB Ahan 2+ goals

29%

ZOB Ahan 3+ goals

9%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals

50%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals

15%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)

65%

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ZOB Ahan at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 115 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ZOB Ahan attack 0.89 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.45 + ZOB Ahan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ZOB Ahan scores more

44%

level

32%

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more

23%

ZOB Ahan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ZOB Ahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff