ZOB Ahan vs Machine Sazi FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 33+ matches
ZOB Ahan47%
Machine Sazi FC23%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
ZOB Ahan creates 58% more chances
Season form · 99 home / 33 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under68
- Over32
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No62
- Yes38
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
ZOB Ahan ↓
Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
ZOB Ahan at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.92 · 99 matches
Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
ZOB Ahan attack 0.85 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.22
Machine Sazi FC attack 0.61 + ZOB Ahan defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.77
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
ZOB Ahan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "ZOB Ahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Head to Head
Persepolis FC
Sepahan FC
Esteghlal FC
Padideh Khorasan
Tractor SaziZOB Ahan
Saipa
Foolad FC
Sanat Naft
Nassaji Mazandaran
Paykan
Pars Jonoubi JAMMachine Sazi FC
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Sepidrood Rasht
Esteghlal KhuzestanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
ZOB Ahan host Machine Sazi FC on Thursday, 28 February 2019 at 15:00. The match is part of the Persian Gulf Pro League 2018/2019 season.
ZOB Ahan 0 – 0 Machine Sazi FC
ZOB Ahan and Machine Sazi FC drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on February 28, 2019.
The match was played at Folād Shahr Stadium (Folād Shahr (Fooladshahr)).