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ZOB Ahan vs Havadar — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Havadar
Havadar
5/18/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 30Folād Shahr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

ZOB Ahan40%
×Draw30%
Havadar30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ZOB Ahan
1.13
Havadar
0.94

ZOB Ahan creates 20% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 59 away

creates per match

ZOB Ahan
0.89
Havadar
0.93

allows per match

ZOB Ahan
0.94
Havadar
1.36

finishing

ZOB Ahan+0.00on par
Havadar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ZOB Ahan ↓

Havadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ZOB Ahan or draw
70%
ZOB Ahan or Havadar
70%
Draw or Havadar
60%

Winning margin

ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
17%
Havadar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
68%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
31%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
11%
Havadar 1+ goals
61%
Havadar 2+ goals
24%
Havadar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
57%
Havadar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ZOB Ahan at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 115 matches

Havadar away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ZOB Ahan attack 0.89 + Havadar defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.13

Havadar attack 0.93 + ZOB Ahan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ZOB Ahan scores more
40%
level
30%
Havadar scores more
30%

ZOB Ahan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ZOB Ahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ZOB Ahan vs Havadar

ZOB Ahan and Havadar drew 3-3 in Persian Gulf Pro League on May 18, 2023.

The match was played at Folād Shahr Stadium in Fooladshahr.