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ZOB Ahan vs Esteghlal FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
1/23/2026Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 17Foolad Shahr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

ZOB Ahan27%
×Draw31%
Esteghlal FC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ZOB Ahan
0.82
Esteghlal FC
1.12

Esteghlal FC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 116 away

creates per match

ZOB Ahan
0.89
Esteghlal FC
1.30

allows per match

ZOB Ahan
0.94
Esteghlal FC
0.75

finishing

ZOB Ahan+0.00on par
Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ZOB Ahan ↓

Esteghlal FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

ZOB Ahan or draw
58%
ZOB Ahan or Esteghlal FC
69%
Draw or Esteghlal FC
73%

Winning margin

ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
9%
Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
56%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
20%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
5%
Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
67%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
31%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
39%
Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ZOB Ahan at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 115 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ZOB Ahan attack 0.89 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Esteghlal FC attack 1.30 + ZOB Ahan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ZOB Ahan scores more
27%
level
31%
Esteghlal FC scores more
42%

Esteghlal FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: ZOB Ahan 0–0 Esteghlal FC

ZOB Ahan and Esteghlal FC drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on January 23, 2026.

The match was played at Foolad Shahr Stadium in Isfahan.