ZOB Ahan 1–0 Esteghlal FC: Result & Stats

ZOB Ahan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Esteghlal FC

5/8/2018

AFC Champions League · 8th FinalsFoolad Shahr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

ZOB Ahan47%

×Draw27%

Esteghlal FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZOB AhanExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.98

ZOB Ahan

1.43

Esteghlal FC

0.98

ZOB Ahan creates 46% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

1.30

creates per match

1.35

0.60

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

ZOB Ahan

1.30

Esteghlal FC

1.35

allows per match

ZOB Ahan

0.60

Esteghlal FC

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ZOB Ahan ↓

Esteghlal FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

ZOB Ahan or draw

74%

ZOB Ahan or Esteghlal FC

73%

Draw or Esteghlal FC

53%

Winning margin

ZOB Ahan wins by 2+

23%

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

ZOB Ahan 1+ goals

76%

ZOB Ahan 2+ goals

42%

ZOB Ahan 3+ goals

17%

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals

62%

Esteghlal FC 2+ goals

26%

Esteghlal FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)

65%

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ZOB Ahan at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ZOB Ahan attack 1.30 + Esteghlal FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Esteghlal FC attack 1.35 + ZOB Ahan defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ZOB Ahan scores more

47%

level

27%

Esteghlal FC scores more

26%

ZOB Ahan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ZOB Ahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff