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ZOB Ahan vs Al-Duhail SC — AFC Champions League 2018

ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Duhail SC
Al-Duhail SC
3/1/2016AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Foolad Shahr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

ZOB Ahan46%
×Draw26%
Al-Duhail SC28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ZOB Ahan
1.48
Al-Duhail SC
1.08

ZOB Ahan creates 37% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 27 away

creates per match

ZOB Ahan
1.30
Al-Duhail SC
1.56

allows per match

ZOB Ahan
0.60
Al-Duhail SC
1.67

finishing

ZOB Ahan+0.00on par
Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ZOB Ahan ↓

Al-Duhail SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

ZOB Ahan or draw
72%
ZOB Ahan or Al-Duhail SC
74%
Draw or Al-Duhail SC
54%

Winning margin

ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
23%
Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
77%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
43%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
19%
Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals
66%
Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals
29%
Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
63%
Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ZOB Ahan at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Al-Duhail SC away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ZOB Ahan attack 1.30 + Al-Duhail SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Al-Duhail SC attack 1.56 + ZOB Ahan defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ZOB Ahan scores more
46%
level
26%
Al-Duhail SC scores more
28%

ZOB Ahan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ZOB Ahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ZOB Ahan vs Al-Duhail SC

ZOB Ahan and Al-Duhail SC drew 0-0 in AFC Champions League on March 1, 2016.

The match was played at Foolad Shahr Stadium in Isfahan.