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Znojmo vs Zlín II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Znojmo
Znojmo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zlín II
Zlín II
4/1/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 22Městský stadion Horním parku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Znojmo46%
×Draw23%
Zlín II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znojmo
1.74
Zlín II
1.37

Znojmo creates 27% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 83 away

creates per match

Znojmo
1.62
Zlín II
1.01

allows per match

Znojmo
1.73
Zlín II
1.86

finishing

Znojmo+0.00on par
Zlín II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znojmo ↓

Zlín II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Znojmo or draw
70%
Znojmo or Zlín II
77%
Draw or Zlín II
54%

Winning margin

Znojmo wins by 2+
25%
Zlín II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Znojmo 1+ goals
82%
Znojmo 2+ goals
52%
Znojmo 3+ goals
25%
Zlín II 1+ goals
75%
Zlín II 2+ goals
40%
Zlín II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Znojmo (draw refunded)
60%
Zlín II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znojmo at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 66 matches

Zlín II away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.86 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znojmo attack 1.62 + Zlín II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.74

Zlín II attack 1.01 + Znojmo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Znojmo scores more
46%
level
23%
Zlín II scores more
30%

Znojmo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Znojmo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znojmo vs Zlín II

Znojmo beat Zlín II 2-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on April 1, 2022.

The match was played at Městský stadion Horním parku in Znojmo.