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Znojmo vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Znojmo
Znojmo
FT
2 – 2
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
M. Papez 89'
Y. Glushach 72'
M. A. Laye Tall 66'
J. Araujo-Wilson 32'
9/19/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 8Městský stadion Horním parku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Znojmo59%
×Draw20%
Vysočina Jihlava II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znojmo
2.18
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.21

Znojmo creates 80% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 23 away

creates per match

Znojmo
1.62
Vysočina Jihlava II
0.70

allows per match

Znojmo
1.73
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.74

finishing

Znojmo+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znojmo ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Znojmo or draw
79%
Znojmo or Vysočina Jihlava II
80%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
41%

Winning margin

Znojmo wins by 2+
37%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Znojmo 1+ goals
89%
Znojmo 2+ goals
64%
Znojmo 3+ goals
37%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
70%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
34%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Znojmo (draw refunded)
74%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znojmo at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 66 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znojmo attack 1.62 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.18

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 0.70 + Znojmo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Znojmo scores more
59%
level
20%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
21%

Znojmo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Znojmo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
P. Kirschner
32'
J. Araujo-Wilson
43'
D. Kocik
46'
M. A. Laye Tall← M. A. Laye Tall
53'
P. Kirschner
53'
P. Kirschner
62'
C. Dau← C. Dau
62'
D. Moucka
64'
S. Chocholaty
66'
M. A. Laye Tall
68'
A. Savi
70'
Z. Fladr← Z. Fladr
70'
←
72'
Y. Glushach
73'
M. A. Laye Tall
74'
P. Mikuska← P. Mikuska
86'
P. Bartunek← P. Bartunek
88'
K. Crhan← K. Crhan
89'
M. Papez
90+3'
S. Zalud← S. Zalud

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znojmo vs Vysočina Jihlava II

Znojmo and Vysočina Jihlava II drew 2-2 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 19, 2021.

Goals: J. Araujo-Wilson (32'), M. A. Laye Tall (66'), Y. Glushach (72'), M. Papez (89').

The match was played at Městský stadion Horním parku in Znojmo.