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Znojmo vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Znojmo
Znojmo
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
P. Kirschner 63', 62'
T. Oklestek 48', 21'
M. Suchy 89'
M. Zednicek 72'
M. Fiala 42'
6/3/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 31Městský stadion Horním parku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Znojmo44%
×Draw23%
Viktoria Otrokovice33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znojmo
1.81
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.55

Znojmo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 68 away

creates per match

Znojmo
1.62
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.37

allows per match

Znojmo
1.73
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.99

finishing

Znojmo+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znojmo ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Znojmo or draw
67%
Znojmo or Viktoria Otrokovice
77%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
56%

Winning margin

Znojmo wins by 2+
24%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Znojmo 1+ goals
84%
Znojmo 2+ goals
54%
Znojmo 3+ goals
27%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
79%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
46%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Znojmo (draw refunded)
57%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znojmo at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 66 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.99 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znojmo attack 1.62 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.81

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.37 + Znojmo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Znojmo scores more
44%
level
23%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
33%

Znojmo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Znojmo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
T. Oklestek
42'
M. Fiala
46'
M. Zednicek← M. Zednicek
46'
M. Vintr← M. Vintr
46'
O. Pyatov← O. Pyatov
48'
T. Oklestek
57'
M. Fiala← P. Chovan
62'
P. Kirschner
63'
P. Kirschner
69'
←
72'
M. Zednicek
76'
T. Prokes← T. Prokes
81'
D. Strombach← J. Spalek
89'
M. Suchy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Znojmo 4–3 Viktoria Otrokovice

Znojmo beat Viktoria Otrokovice 4-3 in 3. liga - MSFL on June 3, 2022.

Goals: T. Oklestek (21', 48'), M. Fiala (42'), P. Kirschner (62', 63'), M. Zednicek (72'), M. Suchy (89').

The match was played at Městský stadion Horním parku in Znojmo.