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Znojmo vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Znojmo
Znojmo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
Neto 57'
D. Nzanza 37'
3/17/20243. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 19Městský stadion Horním parku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Znojmo36%
×Draw25%
Slovan Rosice39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znojmo
1.43
Slovan Rosice
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 66 away

creates per match

Znojmo
1.62
Slovan Rosice
1.27

allows per match

Znojmo
1.73
Slovan Rosice
1.24

finishing

Znojmo+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znojmo ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Znojmo or draw
61%
Znojmo or Slovan Rosice
75%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
64%

Winning margin

Znojmo wins by 2+
17%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Znojmo 1+ goals
76%
Znojmo 2+ goals
42%
Znojmo 3+ goals
17%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
78%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
44%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Znojmo (draw refunded)
48%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znojmo at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 66 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znojmo attack 1.62 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.43

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Znojmo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Znojmo scores more
36%
level
25%
Slovan Rosice scores more
39%

Slovan Rosice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
R. Buchta
34'
P. Novak
37'
D. Nzanza
45+2'
J. M. Carneiro Rodrigues← J. M. Carneiro Rodrigues
48'
A. Rodrigues
56'
B. Abdellaoui← L. Sousa
57'
R. Vilela
57'
Neto
59'
D. Moucka
64'
D. Mazuch← D. Mazuch
64'
F. Adeshina← F. Adeshina
69'
T. Dobrovodsky← T. Dobrovodsky
69'
D. Trtek← D. Trtek
77'
M. Velosa← M. Velosa
78'
K. De Vasconcelos
81'
K. Kulik← K. Kulik
88'
M. Velosa
90+1'
T. Dobrovodsky

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Znojmo 2–0 Slovan Rosice

Znojmo beat Slovan Rosice 2-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on March 17, 2024.

Goals: D. Nzanza (37'), Neto (57').

The match was played at Městský stadion Horním parku in Znojmo.