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Znojmo vs Karviná II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Znojmo
Znojmo
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Karviná II
Karviná II
11/19/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 16Městský stadion Horním parku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Znojmo40%
×Draw23%
Karviná II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znojmo
1.70
Karviná II
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 37 away

creates per match

Znojmo
1.62
Karviná II
1.51

allows per match

Znojmo
1.73
Karviná II
1.78

finishing

Znojmo+0.00on par
Karviná II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znojmo ↓

Karviná II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Znojmo or draw
63%
Znojmo or Karviná II
77%
Draw or Karviná II
60%

Winning margin

Znojmo wins by 2+
21%
Karviná II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Znojmo 1+ goals
82%
Znojmo 2+ goals
51%
Znojmo 3+ goals
24%
Karviná II 1+ goals
80%
Karviná II 2+ goals
48%
Karviná II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Znojmo (draw refunded)
52%
Karviná II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znojmo at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 66 matches

Karviná II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.78 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znojmo attack 1.62 + Karviná II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.70

Karviná II attack 1.51 + Znojmo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Znojmo scores more
40%
level
23%
Karviná II scores more
37%

Znojmo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Znojmo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znojmo vs Karviná II

Karviná II beat Znojmo 3-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Městský stadion Horním parku in Znojmo.