ŽNK Mura W 0–0 Nike W: Result & Stats

ŽNK Mura W

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nike W

9/6/2023

UEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsMestni Štadion Fazanerija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

ŽNK Mura W80%

×Draw11%

Nike W9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŽNK Mura WExpected goals in this matchNike W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.67

1.20

ŽNK Mura W

3.67

Nike W

1.20

ŽNK Mura W creates 206% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.60

creates per match

0.00

2.40

allows per match

4.75

creates per match

ŽNK Mura W

2.60

Nike W

0.00

allows per match

ŽNK Mura W

2.40

Nike W

4.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ŽNK Mura W+0.00on par

Nike W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŽNK Mura W ↓

Nike W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–18%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

ŽNK Mura W or draw

91%

ŽNK Mura W or Nike W

89%

Draw or Nike W

20%

Winning margin

ŽNK Mura W wins by 2+

63%

Nike W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

ŽNK Mura W 1+ goals

97%

ŽNK Mura W 2+ goals

87%

ŽNK Mura W 3+ goals

68%

Nike W 1+ goals

70%

Nike W 2+ goals

34%

Nike W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

ŽNK Mura W (draw refunded)

90%

Nike W (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŽNK Mura W at home — creates 2.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Nike W away — creates 0.00, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŽNK Mura W attack 2.60 + Nike W defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 3.67

Nike W attack 0.00 + ŽNK Mura W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

ŽNK Mura W scores more

80%

level

11%

Nike W scores more

9%

ŽNK Mura W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "ŽNK Mura W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff