Znicz Pruszków 2–0 Wisła Puławy: Result & Stats

Znicz Pruszków

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wisła Puławy

4/22/2022

II Liga - East · Round 29Stadion Znicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Znicz Pruszków40%

×Draw25%

Wisła Puławy36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znicz PruszkówExpected goals in this matchWisła Puławy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.39

Znicz Pruszków

1.48

Wisła Puławy

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 70 away

1.14

creates per match

1.49

1.29

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.14

Wisła Puławy

1.49

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.29

Wisła Puławy

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Wisła Puławy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw

64%

Znicz Pruszków or Wisła Puławy

75%

Draw or Wisła Puławy

60%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

19%

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

77%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

43%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

19%

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals

75%

Wisła Puławy 2+ goals

40%

Wisła Puławy 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

53%

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 69 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.14 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.48

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more

40%

level

25%

Wisła Puławy scores more

36%

Znicz Pruszków at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Znicz Pruszków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff