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Znicz Pruszków vs Stomil Olsztyn — II Liga - East 2019

Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
9/24/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 12Stadion Znicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Znicz Pruszków36%
×Draw29%
Stomil Olsztyn35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znicz Pruszków
1.13
Stomil Olsztyn
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.14
Stomil Olsztyn
0.94

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.29
Stomil Olsztyn
1.12

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw
65%
Znicz Pruszków or Stomil Olsztyn
71%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
64%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
15%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
68%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
31%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
11%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
67%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
30%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
51%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 69 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.14 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.94 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more
36%
level
29%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
35%

Znicz Pruszków at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Znicz Pruszków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znicz Pruszków vs Stomil Olsztyn

Stomil Olsztyn beat Znicz Pruszków 2-0 in II Liga - East on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Znicza in Pruszków.