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Znicz Pruszków vs Sokół Ostróda — II Liga - East 2019

Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
3/27/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 24Stadion Znicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Znicz Pruszków48%
×Draw25%
Sokół Ostróda28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znicz Pruszków
1.63
Sokół Ostróda
1.18

Znicz Pruszków creates 38% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 35 away

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.14
Sokół Ostróda
1.06

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.29
Sokół Ostróda
2.11

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par
Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Sokół Ostróda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw
72%
Znicz Pruszków or Sokół Ostróda
75%
Draw or Sokół Ostróda
52%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
25%
Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
80%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
48%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
22%
Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
69%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
33%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
63%
Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 69 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.14 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.06 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more
48%
level
25%
Sokół Ostróda scores more
28%

Znicz Pruszków at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Znicz Pruszków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znicz Pruszków vs Sokół Ostróda

Znicz Pruszków beat Sokół Ostróda 2-1 in II Liga - East on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Znicza in Pruszków.