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Znicz Pruszków vs Radunia Stężyca — II Liga - East 2019

Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
10/1/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 11Stadion Znicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Znicz Pruszków42%
×Draw26%
Radunia Stężyca33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znicz Pruszków
1.46
Radunia Stężyca
1.27

Znicz Pruszków creates 15% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 61 away

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.14
Radunia Stężyca
1.25

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.29
Radunia Stężyca
1.79

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw
67%
Znicz Pruszków or Radunia Stężyca
74%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
58%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
20%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
77%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
43%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
18%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
72%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
36%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
56%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 69 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.14 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.46

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more
42%
level
26%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
33%

Znicz Pruszków at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Znicz Pruszków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Znicz Pruszków 2–2 Radunia Stężyca

Znicz Pruszków and Radunia Stężyca drew 2-2 in II Liga - East on October 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Znicza in Pruszków.