Znicz Pruszków 2–4 Górnik Polkowice: Result & Stats

Znicz Pruszków

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Górnik Polkowice

D. Zjawiński 90'

M. Machalski 72' (pen)

M. Bednarski 90+2' (pen)

M. Szuszkiewicz 39', 34'

M. Opałacz 31'

10/25/2019

II Liga - East · Round 15Stadion Znicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Znicz Pruszków34%

×Draw27%

Górnik Polkowice39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znicz PruszkówExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.33

Znicz Pruszków

1.22

Górnik Polkowice

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 53 away

1.14

creates per match

1.40

1.27

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.14

Górnik Polkowice

1.40

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.27

Górnik Polkowice

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw

61%

Znicz Pruszków or Górnik Polkowice

73%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

66%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

14%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

70%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

34%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

12%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

74%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

38%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

46%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.27 · 70 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.14 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.40 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more

34%

level

27%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

39%

Górnik Polkowice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

M. Opałacz

34'

M. Szuszkiewicz

38'

R. Karmelita← M. Ekwueme

39'

M. Szuszkiewicz

50'

K. Noiszewski← P. Tarnowski

58'

K. Tabara← P. Moskwik

60'

K. Fryzowicz← D. Radziemski

70'

E. Sobków← P. Azikiewicz

72'

M. MachalskiPenalty

80'

M. Rackiewicz← R. Obst

80'

K. Osiadły← F. Baranowski

90'

D. Zjawiński

90+2'

M. BednarskiPenalty

Znicz

Górnik

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Prawda

50'▲K. Noiszewski←▼P. Tarnowski

58'▲K. Tabara←▼P. Moskwik

80'▲M. Rackiewicz←▼R. Obst

Znicz Pruszków substitutes

NoiszewskiTabaraRackiewicz

Manager: E. Dobi

38'▲R. Karmelita←▼M. Ekwueme

60'▲K. Fryzowicz←▼D. Radziemski

70'▲E. Sobków←▼P. Azikiewicz

80'▲K. Osiadły←▼F. Baranowski

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

KarmelitaFryzowiczSobkówOsiadły