Górnik Polkowice 1–2 Znicz Pruszków: Result & Stats

Górnik Polkowice

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Znicz Pruszków

M. Bednarski 61'

P. Moskwik 81'

A. Pyrka 51'

7/15/2020

II Liga - East · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Górnik Polkowice49%

×Draw24%

Znicz Pruszków28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchZnicz Pruszków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.25

Górnik Polkowice

1.73

Znicz Pruszków

1.25

Górnik Polkowice creates 38% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 69 away

2.00

creates per match

1.36

1.15

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

2.00

Znicz Pruszków

1.36

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.15

Znicz Pruszków

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Znicz Pruszków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

72%

Górnik Polkowice or Znicz Pruszków

76%

Draw or Znicz Pruszków

51%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

26%

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

82%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

52%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

25%

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

71%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

36%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

64%

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 2.00 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.36 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

49%

level

24%

Znicz Pruszków scores more

28%

Górnik Polkowice at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

P. Czarnowski

32'

P. Moskwik

39'

M. Opalacz

47'

51'

A. Pyrka

59'

B. Faliszewski← K. Noiszewski

61'

61'

64'

64'

64'

67'

K. Skibko← D. Zjawiński

70'

K. Szmyt← F. Baranowski

74'

K. Tabara← P. Czarnowski

76'

D. Radziemski← E. Sobków

80'

M. Baszak← M. Szuszkiewicz

81'

P. Moskwik

85'

M. Baszak

90'

M. Bochenek

90+4'

M. Szymanski← P. Moskwik

Górnik

Znicz

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: E. Dobi

70'▲K. Szmyt←▼F. Baranowski

76'▲D. Radziemski←▼E. Sobków

80'▲M. Baszak←▼M. Szuszkiewicz

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

SzmytRadziemskiBaszak

Manager: A. Weska

59'▲B. Faliszewski←▼K. Noiszewski

67'▲K. Skibko←▼D. Zjawiński

74'▲K. Tabara←▼P. Czarnowski

90+4'▲M. Szymanski←▼P. Moskwik

Znicz Pruszków substitutes

FaliszewskiSkibkoTabaraSzymanski

II Liga - East: Górnik Polkowice 1–2 Znicz Pruszków

Znicz Pruszków beat Górnik Polkowice 2-1 in II Liga - East on July 15, 2020.

Goals: A. Pyrka (51'), M. Bednarski (61'), P. Moskwik (81').

Górnik Polkowice vs Znicz Pruszków — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

II Liga - East: Górnik Polkowice 1–2 Znicz Pruszków