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Znicz Pruszków vs Górnik Łęczna — I Liga 2018

Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
4/24/2026I LigaI Liga · Round 30Stadion MZOS Znicz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Znicz Pruszków37%
×Draw26%
Górnik Łęczna38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znicz Pruszków
1.35
Górnik Łęczna
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 86 away

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.37
Górnik Łęczna
1.13

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.61
Górnik Łęczna
1.33

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par
Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Górnik Łęczna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw
62%
Znicz Pruszków or Górnik Łęczna
74%
Draw or Górnik Łęczna
63%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
17%
Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
74%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
39%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
15%
Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals
75%
Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals
40%
Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
49%
Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Górnik Łęczna away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.37 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.13 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more
37%
level
26%
Górnik Łęczna scores more
38%

Górnik Łęczna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Znicz Pruszków 2–2 Górnik Łęczna

Znicz Pruszków and Górnik Łęczna drew 2-2 in I Liga on April 24, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion MZOS Znicz.