Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Znicz Pruszków vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
8/14/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 6Stadion Znicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Znicz Pruszków37%
×Draw26%
Garbarnia Kraków37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znicz Pruszków
1.30
Garbarnia Kraków
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 68 away

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.14
Garbarnia Kraków
1.28

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.29
Garbarnia Kraków
1.47

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw
63%
Znicz Pruszków or Garbarnia Kraków
74%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
63%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
16%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
73%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
37%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
14%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
72%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
37%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
50%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 69 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.14 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more
37%
level
26%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
37%

Znicz Pruszków at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Znicz Pruszków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znicz Pruszków vs Garbarnia Kraków

Znicz Pruszków beat Garbarnia Kraków 2-1 in II Liga - East on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Znicza in Pruszków.