Znicz Pruszków 1–1 Chrobry Głogów: Result & Stats

Znicz Pruszków

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chrobry Głogów

D. Stanclik 72'

S. Bartlewicz 37'

5/5/2024

I Liga · Round 31Stadion Znicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Znicz Pruszków34%

×Draw23%

Chrobry Głogów43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znicz PruszkówExpected goals in this matchChrobry Głogów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.73

Znicz Pruszków

1.51

Chrobry Głogów

1.73

Chrobry Głogów creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 42 away

1.47

creates per match

0.98

2.47

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.47

Chrobry Głogów

0.98

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków

2.47

Chrobry Głogów

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Chrobry Głogów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw

57%

Znicz Pruszków or Chrobry Głogów

77%

Draw or Chrobry Głogów

66%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

16%

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

78%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

44%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

19%

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

82%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

52%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

44%

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.47 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.51

Chrobry Głogów attack 0.98 + Znicz Pruszków defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more

34%

level

23%

Chrobry Głogów scores more

43%

Chrobry Głogów at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

S. Bartlewicz

43'

J. Kuzdra← D. Hanc

46'

D. Stanclik← D. Yukhymovych

46'

J. Wawszczyk← P. Moskwik

46'

T. Proczek← M. Krajewski

61'

J. Wójcicki← K. Tabara

65'

B. Biel← S. Bartlewicz

65'

K. Tabiś← M. Machaj

72'

D. Stanclik

89'

M. Ozimek← P. Tupaj

90+3'

W. Nowak← S. Nagamatsu

Znicz

Chrobry

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Misiura

46'▲D. Stanclik←▼D. Yukhymovych

46'▲J. Wawszczyk←▼P. Moskwik

46'▲T. Proczek←▼M. Krajewski

61'▲J. Wójcicki←▼K. Tabara

90+3'▲W. Nowak←▼S. Nagamatsu

Znicz Pruszków substitutes

StanclikWawszczykProczekWójcickiNowakSkładowskiImaiMleczkoBłyszko

Manager: P. Plewnia

43'▲J. Kuzdra←▼D. Hanc

65'▲B. Biel←▼S. Bartlewicz

65'▲K. Tabiś←▼M. Machaj

89'▲M. Ozimek←▼P. Tupaj

Chrobry Głogów substitutes

KuzdraBielTabiśOzimekBoguszPazDybowskiPlewkaWojciechowski

I Liga: Znicz Pruszków 1–1 Chrobry Głogów

Znicz Pruszków and Chrobry Głogów drew 1-1 in I Liga on May 5, 2024.

Goals: S. Bartlewicz (37'), D. Stanclik (72').

The match was played at Stadion Znicza in Pruszków.

Znicz Pruszków vs Chrobry Głogów — I Liga 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Znicz Pruszków 1–1 Chrobry Głogów