Znicz Pruszków 2–3 Chojniczanka Chojnice

Znicz Pruszków

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1/31/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Znicz Pruszków35%

×Draw24%

Chojniczanka Chojnice41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znicz PruszkówExpected goals in this matchChojniczanka Chojnice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.58

Znicz Pruszków

1.44

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.58

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 10% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.67

creates per match

1.60

1.56

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.67

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.60

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.56

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw

59%

Znicz Pruszków or Chojniczanka Chojnice

76%

Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice

65%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

16%

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

76%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

42%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

18%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals

79%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals

47%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

46%

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.67 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.60 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more

35%

level

24%

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more

41%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Znicz

Chojniczanka

Manager: Peter Struhar

Manager: Marek Brzozowski