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Znicz Biała Piska vs Sokół Aleksandrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Znicz Biała Piska
Znicz Biała Piska
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
5/28/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Stadion Miejski przy Zespole Szkół nr 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Znicz Biała Piska38%
×Draw24%
Sokół Aleksandrów38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znicz Biała Piska
1.49
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

creates per match

Znicz Biała Piska
1.27
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.13

allows per match

Znicz Biała Piska
1.88
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.71

finishing

Znicz Biała Piska+0.00on par
Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Biała Piska ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Znicz Biała Piska or draw
62%
Znicz Biała Piska or Sokół Aleksandrów
76%
Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów
62%

Winning margin

Znicz Biała Piska wins by 2+
18%
Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Znicz Biała Piska 1+ goals
77%
Znicz Biała Piska 2+ goals
44%
Znicz Biała Piska 3+ goals
19%
Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
78%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
44%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Znicz Biała Piska (draw refunded)
50%
Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Biała Piska at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.88 · 52 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Biała Piska attack 1.27 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.49

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Znicz Biała Piska defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Znicz Biała Piska scores more
38%
level
24%
Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
38%

Znicz Biała Piska at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Znicz Biała Piska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Znicz Biała Piska 4–1 Sokół Aleksandrów

Znicz Biała Piska beat Sokół Aleksandrów 4-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski przy Zespole Szkół nr 1 in Biała Piska.