Znicz Biała Piska 1–0 Radomsko: Result & Stats

Znicz Biała Piska

FT

1 – 0

Radomsko

3/27/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Stadion Miejski przy Zespole Szkół nr 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Znicz Biała Piska35%

×Draw24%

Radomsko41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znicz Biała PiskaExpected goals in this matchRadomsko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.60

Znicz Biała Piska

1.47

Radomsko

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 15 away

1.27

creates per match

1.33

1.88

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Znicz Biała Piska

1.27

Radomsko

1.33

allows per match

Znicz Biała Piska

1.88

Radomsko

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znicz Biała Piska+0.00on par

Radomsko+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Biała Piska ↓

Radomsko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Znicz Biała Piska or draw

59%

Znicz Biała Piska or Radomsko

76%

Draw or Radomsko

65%

Winning margin

Znicz Biała Piska wins by 2+

16%

Radomsko wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Znicz Biała Piska 1+ goals

77%

Znicz Biała Piska 2+ goals

43%

Znicz Biała Piska 3+ goals

18%

Radomsko 1+ goals

80%

Radomsko 2+ goals

47%

Radomsko 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Znicz Biała Piska (draw refunded)

46%

Radomsko (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Biała Piska at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.88 · 52 matches

Radomsko away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Biała Piska attack 1.27 + Radomsko defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.47

Radomsko attack 1.33 + Znicz Biała Piska defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Znicz Biała Piska scores more

35%

level

24%

Radomsko scores more

41%

Radomsko at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Radomsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff