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Znicz Biała Piska vs Mamry Giżycko — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Znicz Biała Piska
Znicz Biała Piska
FT
1 – 2
Mamry Giżycko
Mamry Giżycko
B. Gielazyn 90+4'
R. Gulbierz 85'
P. Dyminski 19'
8/14/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Stadion Miejski przy Zespole Szkół nr 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Znicz Biała Piska41%
×Draw23%
Mamry Giżycko36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znicz Biała Piska
1.67
Mamry Giżycko
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

creates per match

Znicz Biała Piska
1.27
Mamry Giżycko
1.22

allows per match

Znicz Biała Piska
1.88
Mamry Giżycko
2.06

finishing

Znicz Biała Piska+0.00on par
Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Biała Piska ↓

Mamry Giżycko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Znicz Biała Piska or draw
64%
Znicz Biała Piska or Mamry Giżycko
77%
Draw or Mamry Giżycko
59%

Winning margin

Znicz Biała Piska wins by 2+
21%
Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Znicz Biała Piska 1+ goals
81%
Znicz Biała Piska 2+ goals
50%
Znicz Biała Piska 3+ goals
23%
Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals
79%
Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals
46%
Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Znicz Biała Piska (draw refunded)
53%
Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Biała Piska at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.88 · 52 matches

Mamry Giżycko away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Biała Piska attack 1.27 + Mamry Giżycko defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.67

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.22 + Znicz Biała Piska defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Znicz Biała Piska scores more
41%
level
23%
Mamry Giżycko scores more
36%

Znicz Biała Piska at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Znicz Biała Piska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
P. Dyminski
85'
R. Gulbierz
90+4'
B. Gielazyn

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Znicz Biała Piska 1–2 Mamry Giżycko

Mamry Giżycko beat Znicz Biała Piska 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 14, 2021.

Goals: P. Dyminski (19'), R. Gulbierz (85'), B. Gielazyn (90+4').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski przy Zespole Szkół nr 1 in Biała Piska.