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Znamya Truda vs Zenit 2 — Second League - Group 2 2020

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zenit 2
Zenit 2
4/9/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 2Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Znamya Truda31%
×Draw26%
Zenit 244%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.20
Zenit 2
1.48

Zenit 2 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 80 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
1.05
Zenit 2
1.49

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.48
Zenit 2
1.35

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Zenit 2+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Zenit 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
56%
Znamya Truda or Zenit 2
74%
Draw or Zenit 2
69%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
13%
Zenit 2 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
70%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
34%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
12%
Zenit 2 1+ goals
77%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
43%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
41%
Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

Zenit 2 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.35 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.05 + Zenit 2 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

Zenit 2 attack 1.49 + Znamya Truda defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
31%
level
26%
Zenit 2 scores more
44%

Zenit 2 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zenit 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Znamya Truda 0–0 Zenit 2

Znamya Truda and Zenit 2 drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 2 on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.